Why Treasury yields might be closer to breaking down than breaking out

This research is for the clients of Fundstrat Direct only. Fundstrat Direct Subscription entitles the subscriber to 1 user, research cannot be shared or redistributed. For additional information, please contact your sales representative or Fundstrat Direct at fundstratdirect.com.

This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of Fundstrat Direct. At the time of publication of this report, Fundstrat Direct does not know of, or have reason to know of any material conflicts of interest.

Fundstrat Direct is an independent research company and is not a registered investment advisor and is not acting as a broker dealer under any federal or state securities laws.

Fundstrat Direct is a member of IRC Securities’ Research Prime Services Platform. IRC Securities is a FINRA registered broker-dealer that is focused on supporting the independent research industry. Certain personnel of Fundstrat Direct (i.e. Research Analysts) are registered representatives of IRC Securities, a FINRA member firm registered as a broker-dealer with the Securities and Exchange Commission and certain state securities regulators. As registered representatives and independent contractors of IRC Securities, such personnel may receive commissions paid to or shared with IRC Securities for transactions placed by Fundstrat Direct clients directly with IRC Securities or with securities firms that may share commissions with IRC Securities in accordance with applicable SEC and FINRA requirements. IRC Securities does not distribute the research of Fundstrat Direct, which is available to select institutional clients that have engaged Fundstrat Direct.

As registered representatives of IRC Securities our analysts must follow IRC Securities’ Written Supervisory Procedures. Notable compliance policies include (1) prohibition of insider trading or the facilitation thereof, (2) maintaining client confidentiality, (3) archival of electronic communications, and (4) appropriate use of electronic communications, amongst other compliance related policies.

Fundstrat Direct does not have the same conflicts that traditional sell-side research organizations have because Fundstrat Direct (1) does not conduct any investment banking activities, and (2) does not manage any investment funds.

This communication is issued by Fundstrat Direct and/or affiliates of Fundstrat Direct. This is not a personal recommendation, nor an offer to buy or sell nor a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, investment products or other financial instruments or services. This material is distributed for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting or investment advice.
The statements in this document shall not be considered as an objective or independent explanation of the matters. Please note that this document (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination or publication of investment research.
Intended for recipient only and not for further distribution without the consent of Fundstrat Direct.

This research is for the clients of Fundstrat Direct only. Additional information is available upon request. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Fundstrat Direct does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to Fundstrat Direct and the analyst’s involvement (if any) with any of the subject companies of the research. All pricing is as of the market close for the securities discussed, unless otherwise stated. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, risk tolerance, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein. Except in circumstances where Fundstrat Direct expressly agrees otherwise in writing, Fundstrat Direct is not acting as a municipal advisor and the opinions or views contained herein are not intended to be, and do not constitute, advice, including within the meaning of Section 15B of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All research reports are disseminated and available to all clients simultaneously through electronic publication to our internal client website, fundstratdirect.com. Not all research content is redistributed to our clients or made available to third-party aggregators or the media. Please contact your sales representative if you would like to receive any of our research publications.

Copyright © 2026 Fundstrat Direct LLC. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the prior written consent of Fundstrat Direct LLC.