What to make of multiple European indices clawing back to new highs

US Equities and Treasuries look to be near resistance, while the US Dollar index has begun to rally.  A majority of the major sectors are also now right near meaningful intermediate-term downtrends.  Until we can see proof of downtrends being convincingly broken across the board, I still view current levels as being a poor risk/reward for new investments without consolidation.   Weakness possible into 12/23

Similar to recent days, there was far more to discuss in Treasury, Commodity and FX markets than with regards to US Equities.  Early US equity strength was repelled, and SPX now lies within 2 points of the 11/20/23 close, more than two weeks ago. 

At present, there are sufficient reasons to expect consolidation over the next few weeks, which I’ve discussed in recent notes.   However, the degree of strength out of Financials and Industrials are certainly positives for the US Stock market overall in recent weeks.   Increasingly, it’s becoming more clear that any selloff likely will prove short-lived and likely not erase more than 62% of the advance from late October before turning back higher to new highs into 2024.  I’ll discuss 2024 targets on 12/14/23.

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