QQQ support violation postpones immediate rally

The recent selloff took a turn for the worse with the break of multi-week lows in QQQ, representing the worst two-day selloff since October 2023.  While I argued in last Friday’s note that this week should be important in causing a low to this recent decline, it doesn’t look to be in place just yet after Monday’s drop.   Interest rates and US Dollar continue to trend higher and these are key reasons along with the ramping up in geopolitical tension that stocks are declining.  Furthermore, QQQ just broke to multi-week lows, and this firmly puts the focus on later this week for a possible bottom, vs. earlier in the week given cyclical projections.  At present, after just a -3.6% decline over the last few weeks, this pullback falls in line with seasonal tendencies which argued for possible 2Q weakness before rallies back to highs.  I continue to view this decline as short-term in nature, vs the start of a major pullback.

Unfortunately, all of the positives about Technology resilience, lack of Defensive strength, cyclical tendencies and sectors like Healthcare and Financials nearing support couldn’t do much to help markets stabilize today, and the break in QQQ looks damaging in the short run.

To ask ourselves whether a major selloff is underway, a few things need to be answered:

checkout-thomas-lee image
checkout-logo image

Become a Member To Access Fundstrat Research

Fundstrat Direct gives individual investors access to Tom Lee's research, previously only available to banks and hedge funds.

Monthly

$199/mo

First Month Free

Join Now

Annual

-15% $2,028/yr

List Price $2,388

Savings: $360/yr

Join Now

Why Join Fundstrat Direct?

Fundstrat Direct helps you invest confidently with the same research banks and hedge funds use to navigate the market.

Daily Strategy Icon

Daily Strategy from Tom Lee & Team

Stay ahead of consensus with daily updates on key developments & catalysts and opportunities ahead.

Real-Time Market Alerts Icon

Real-Time Market Alerts

Analysis on market-moving events and actionable opportunities delivered instantly from us to you.

Curated Stock Lists Icon

Curated Stock Lists

Choose the portfolio that best suits your investment style, preferred asset class, and time horizon.

Monthly Market Update & Top Ideas Webinar Icon

Monthly Market Update & Top Ideas Webinar

Attend engaging webinars with Tom & team featuring our top ideas and near-term market outlook.

Daily Technical Strategy Icon

Daily Technical Strategy

Receive tactical opportunities, actionable signals, and fundamental analysis from our proven research team.

Live Analysis on Your Holdings Icon

Live Analysis on Your Holdings

A monthly webinar featuring live analysis on member-submitted stocks and questions.

Disclosures (show)

Events

Trending tickers in our research