NKY looks to have bounced at key support; Meanwhile a bounce in Natural Gas looks likely

The Monday meltdown finally showed some key elements of fear which suggests that this selloff could be nearing conclusion.   While the SPX and QQQ’s 3% declines represented the largest moves since 2022, there still hasn’t been an equivalent move in the Equal-weighted indices, which look to be in much better shape.  Additionally, USDJPY’s decline, which was thought by many to have been a key catalyst for this giant cross-asset decline, is rapidly approaching last December lows, which should provide some stability in the next couple days. Furthermore, Technology as a sector has now sold off to near this year’s lows and as Tom Lee has discussed, valuations look reasonable ahead of a time when FOMC could be set to cut rates as many as five times in the next four months.  Overall, I sense that the decline from mid-July is nearing its end and a bounce should begin to get back underway this week, into mid-September. 

Tuesday’s gains looked constructive given that breadth picked up quite a bit on this broad-based rise, and signaled greater than a 4/1 Advance/Decline along with a similar ratio of volume into Advancing vs. Declining issues.

To speak about this from a more granular level, all 11 sectors rose more than 1% on the day, and 5 sectors out of 11 rose more than 2%.  That’s a pretty constructive bounce, directly following Monday’s huge 90% Down day and VIX spike.

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