Some reasons to be optimistic despite the Tariff “Doom and gloom”

Despite the ongoing volatility, this week’s price action suggests short-term stability for US Equities, and likely can begin to lead markets higher in a “2-steps forward, one-step back” type fashion in the weeks ahead. Multiple technical factors have come together to show an inflection this past week coinciding with breadth and volume capitulation at a time when sentiment had reached the most negative levels in years.  Technology’s rebound from support this week is another reason for optimism, and should help to drive markets higher into mid-May. Thus, while trends and momentum remain negative from mid-February,  seasonality and cycles show a rally developing following signs of tariff fatigue from Equities, and breadth has improved following the best one-week performance in SPX since 2023. Going forward, SPX 5500, QQQ-466.43, and DJIA-40,661 remain key areas to exceed to have confidence, and these could be exceeded heading into next week. At this point, it remains premature for me to consider this a bear market, nor should the US economy enter a recession.

Three important takeaways from this past week:

US Equities staged their best week since 2023 amidst a sea of pessimism and doubt regarding earnings, inflation, slowing growth, and tariff escalation. While there’s an immense amount of work to be done in rebuilding momentum at a time when trends from February remain bearish, this week’s stabilization and rebound is a definite positive.

checkout-thomas-lee image
checkout-logo image

Become a Member To Access Fundstrat Research

Fundstrat Direct gives individual investors access to Tom Lee's research, previously only available to banks and hedge funds.

Monthly

$199/mo

First Month Free

Join Now

Annual

-15% $2,028/yr

List Price $2,388

Savings: $360/yr

Join Now

Why Join Fundstrat Direct?

Fundstrat Direct helps you invest confidently with the same research banks and hedge funds use to navigate the market.

Daily Strategy Icon

Daily Strategy from Tom Lee & Team

Stay ahead of consensus with daily updates on key developments & catalysts and opportunities ahead.

Real-Time Market Alerts Icon

Real-Time Market Alerts

Analysis on market-moving events and actionable opportunities delivered instantly from us to you.

Curated Stock Lists Icon

Curated Stock Lists

Choose the portfolio that best suits your investment style, preferred asset class, and time horizon.

Monthly Market Update & Top Ideas Webinar Icon

Monthly Market Update & Top Ideas Webinar

Attend engaging webinars with Tom & team featuring our top ideas and near-term market outlook.

Daily Technical Strategy Icon

Daily Technical Strategy

Receive tactical opportunities, actionable signals, and fundamental analysis from our proven research team.

Live Analysis on Your Holdings Icon

Live Analysis on Your Holdings

A monthly webinar featuring live analysis on member-submitted stocks and questions.

Disclosures (show)

Events

Trending tickers in our research