The US Dollar looks to have begun its descent back to new 2025 lows

The near-term trend for US Equities is bullish, but it’s thought that SPX likely won’t immediately break out to new highs into FOMC, and the pattern for the first couple of weeks of December could prove far choppier than the last part of December. Chances for a December rate cut have now risen to near 100% certainty as per Fed Fund futures pricing data, but many U.S. stock sectors still require some improvement before one can call for a broad-based rally to have gotten underway. The US Dollar has begun to turn lower in the last week, and it’s thought that both US Treasury yields and the US Dollar should begin to weaken with greater velocity post this month’s Fed meeting. Overall, given the market’s snapback from late November, technicals have improved to match some of the bullish seasonality thought possible for this month. Moreover, the comeback in Technology looks important and positive in the short run, and similar to Tuesday’s trading, should be able to help support markets despite some lackluster performance in other sectors. Bottom line, trends are bullish, but technicals support further choppiness until post-FOMC.

Tuesday’s outperformance in Technology was similar to price action between July and November as breadth proved muted, while more volume flowed into Declining than Advancing issues on the NYSE.

However, the comeback in Technology in recent days is certainly a positive, technically speaking, and should be able to help US Stock indices hold up until more confidence of global central bank actions are known in the weeks ahead.

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