Temporary push back to new highs looks to be underway

The late week rally looks to have gotten the short-term push back to new highs back on track following the SCOTUS ruling on Tariffs. However, make no mistake, the broader trend for US Equity markets certainly remains range-bound over the last four months, and a small bounce in Technology at the end of the month might not be sufficient to change this too dramatically.  As discussed in recent days, the decline in Software and "Mag 7" has served as a headwind to both SPX and QQQ, immediately joining suit at new highs, and makes SPX and QQQ much more neutral than bullish when compared to the Equal-weighted SPX. The good news is that broader market breadth has not broken down too meaningfully when compared to times of market duress in early 2025 and/or 2022, and despite the volatility having been seen given the rampant sector rotation, the broader SPX has experienced one of its narrowest early-year trading ranges in over 40 years.  I suspect that Growth might attempt a small bounce vs. Value over the next 1-2 weeks as SPX attempts to push back to new all-time high territory, but given the amount of underperformance seen in Technology recently, it still looks right to have some diversification in non-US markets and/or seeking other areas outside of Technology for alpha in the months to come.    

Overall, when eyeing $SPX, my analysis shows a good likelihood of a coming push back to new all-time highs over the next week.

However, I remain wary about late-month cycles starting to exert some bearish influence on US Equity markets into March and feel like it remains important to have some vigilance and not grow too complacent given the recent downturn in momentum and growth names.

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