Expecting choppy 3-5 days & more breadth needed for confidence

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US Equity trends remain trapped in the tightest range ever experienced in SPX, going back since its inception, after a 2.7% low-to-high range based on closing prices from the beginning of 2026.  The range-bound action in SPX certainly feels different from the violent rotation that’s been successfully absorbed by US indices, yet cross-asset volatility remains much higher than many would prefer.  Furthermore, Crude oil, the US Dollar, and Treasury yields continue to press higher, and reports of Iran’s attempts to secretly negotiate an end to this war certainly cannot be confirmed and are thought to be premature. For now, it’s early, technically speaking, to suggest that Crude oil has peaked out, and any further push higher in WTI Crude likely could result in some consolidation in Equities into early next week.  Yet, if both SPX and QQQ climb above this past Monday’s highs, I think it’s right to think that lows are in place for the time being.  Bullish seasonal rallies for SPX might play out into early April back to new all-time highs, but I suspect that upside likely proves muted and SPX could fail to get above the resistance zone of 7150-7200 before facing Spring weakness.  For now, this remains a difficult, choppy market that lacks trending behavior and has been much better for traders than investors, given the whipsaw-like nature.  Until this tight trading range ends, it’s hard to expect an immediate end to this, but I do suspect it’s resolved sometime in March.

As I wrote yesterday, I had lacked conviction that a low was in place for $SPX despite the two-day bounce to recover the recent trading range based on reasons such as mediocre breadth, lack of capitulation, and recent downside volatility in many Semiconductor and Data Storage names.

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