Gold looks to be on increasingly shaky ground

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Near-term SPX trends remain bearish, and trends and momentum remain negatively sloped while market breadth is in dire need of immediate recovery. For now, the risk-on trade remains captive to WTI Crude oil and progress in reopening the Hormuz Strait. In the short run, minor weakness in WTI Crude oil, along with the US Dollar and US Treasury yields, could continue to be a short-term bullish catalyst for why Equities can bounce this week into quarterly options expiration.  However, it’s thought that US Equities require a lot of strength and breadth improvement to expect that a further selloff into April can be avoided.  Most investors should continue to favor a heavily diversified stance and overweight defensive sectors like Utilities, Telecom, and Pharmaceutical stocks until Technology can show more evidence of stabilization.   Increasingly, I’m expecting that November 2025 lows could be tested for SPX and QQQ, given that WTI Crude likely starts to push back higher next week, along with long-term interest rates.

US Equity trends have not improved meaningfully on this week’s bounce attempt thus far, despite the attempted recovery in parts of Technology.  $SPX remains within an existing short-term downtrend from late February following the breakdown from its four-month base. 

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