Massive rally not quite enough to change Equity trend - One More decline would be helpful

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Near-term SPX trends remain bearish, while the US Dollar, US Treasury yields, and WTI Crude oil continue to point higher. Tuesday’s rally, while impressive, didn’t result in any technical improvement to trends but certainly helped momentum and breadth improve on a short-term basis.   Thus, any backing and filling that takes prices lower into April likely will help to create stronger positive divergence, which would make calling a low a bit easier. Bottom line, I do not feel that lows are in, but feel like US indices are close. One final pullback into April over the next 1-2 weeks should help to satisfy many of the ongoing technical concerns and would make it easier to buy dips, expecting a more meaningful recovery.  Until then, most investors arguably should continue to favor a heavily diversified stance and overweight defensive sectors like Utilities, Energy, Telecom, and Pharmaceutical stocks until Technology can show more evidence of stabilization. My SPX targeted support is near 6200 up to 6300, with several projections hitting inside this range. My feeling is that even on a bounce attempt, SPX should pull back into this range, and April could mark a low for this initial steep decline.

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