US Equities nearing important short-term resistance; Technology being raised to Overweight

SPX and QQQ look to have made important lows in late March and now should be nearing resistance, which might allow for a stalling out and “backing and filling” to this move over the next 7-10 days before beginning a more serious advance.   The degree to which Technology and Financials have begun to show more relative strength has been important in recent weeks, and the market breadth improvement during a time of negative Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) positioning could add some fuel to this rally into May.  However, at present, WTI Crude pressing higher is a short-term negative, but looks to prove temporary before turning back down in May.   Precious metals should look to press higher in the next week while the US Dollar pulls back.  Overall, I expect that any consolidation for US Equities might start in 1-2 days but prove short-lived before starting to turn back up into May. SPX might retrace 38-50% of the rally from 3/30/26 lows ideally, but should not undercut the March lows before turning higher.   Thereafter, my expectation is that SPX could rally up to 7300 into August.

Following a nearly 500-point S&P rally into mid-April, my expectation is that some consolidation is drawing near for this rally, which could begin sometime this week.

Over the last week, S&P has managed to rally to the JPM Quarterly Collar strike of 6840, which could act as a magnet in the short run as part of their quarterly spread, which acted as good support last month (and now could act as resistance).

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