Reversal encouraging, specifically for Metals and Crypto

Near-term and intermediate-term technical trends remain bullish for US Equities, and the recent deterioration in Technology has not resulted in US Equities breaking uptrends either from 8/1 lows or from 4/7 lows. The resilience of the broader market in the face of Technology weakness is thought to be one key reason why this recent weakness is thought to represent just a minor pullback within the uptrend.  However, the fact that precious metals and cryptocurrencies have also made sharp reversals back higher also looks important and bullish for risk assets at a time when Treasury yields continue to fall.  If/when SPX gets under early August lows at 6212.21, it will be proper to discuss a pullback getting underway.  At present, despite the bifurcation within Technology, it’s hard to say that the selloff from 8/13 represents the start of a Fall correction.  However, failure of Technology to make a strong comeback into mid-September, which negatively affects breadth and momentum, would likely mean the much-anticipated Fall 2025 pullback is upon us.

At present, SPX looks like a great risk/reward, even if Wednesday’s lows don’t turn out to be the low of this most recent drawdown.  Given the sharp setback that has happened within the Software sector of Technology, it’s hard to take 10-20% pullbacks within a week in many Software names to claim “the bottom is in”.

Normally, some further stabilization is required that involves a possible Undercut of lows, specifically when DeMark-related exhaustion is not yet in place on daily charts.

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