SPX and QQQ should hit support into early April but for now still premature

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Near-term SPX trends remain bearish, but have begun to show more of a parabolic decline as WTI Crude, US Dollar, and Treasury yields keep lifting.  Momentum is nearing oversold levels on daily charts, but remains well off those levels on weekly and monthly, while breadth continues to worsen. I’m expecting that the US Equity decline could fall into early April before bottoming near a similar time frame as last year.  However, for now, none of the capitulation that’s needed has happened, and the recent disgruntlement has yet turned to fear. Sentiment is turning more negative, and the Administration seems to be nearing a pain threshold that might offer some relief to Equities in April.  At present, volatility is rising, and buying dips is probably still a bit premature given that technicals seem to point to WTI Crude moving back to $110. Bottom line, most investors should continue to favor a heavily diversified stance and overweight defensive sectors like Utilities, Energy, Telecom, and Pharmaceutical stocks until Technology can show more evidence of stabilization. My SPX targeted support is near 6200 up to 6300, with several projections hitting inside this range.  My feeling is that even on a bounce attempt, SPX should pull back into this range, and April could mark a low for this initial steep decline.

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