The MSTR Flywheel is the Biggest Threat to My Bear Market Rally Thesis

Apr 17, 2026 • 10 Min Read

Portfolios

Getting Up to Speed

In last week's note, I discussed some of the reasons that I favored the continuation of this bear market rally. Among those were the anticipated roll-off of the geopolitical risk premium that had been weighing on crypto, positioning in traditional markets that were less saturated in risk, positioning metrics in crypto that suggested traders were outright defensive, and the anticipated flows from MSTR over the coming days as Saylor was likely to issue as much STRC as possible into the...

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