VACATION ALERT!
This week (3/15-3/19), Spring Break arrives for tireless Ken and for me.
– Daily COVID-19 data updates is being sent, handled by data science team
– But no strategy commentary, nor analysis.
– If there are breaking market moves, we will send out FLASH INTRADAY as needed
END OF VACATION ALERT!
Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.
POINT 1: Daily COVID-19 cases 42,539, +2,520 vs 7D ago…
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Current Trends — COVID-19 cases:
– Daily cases 42,539 vs 40,019 7D ago, up 2,520
– 7D positivity rate 4.2% vs 4.7% 7D ago
– Hospitalized patients 34,210 down -7.7% vs 7D ago
– Daily deaths 1,174, down -23.7% vs 7D ago
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– The latest COVID-19 daily cases came in at 42,539 up 2,520 vs 7D ago.
– After being in the negative regime for 2 weeks, the 7D delta in daily cases has turned positive. A conclusion can’t be drawn based on one day’s data, but we will continue to monitor for a counter-trend over the coming days.
Source: Fundstrat and state health departments
7D delta in daily cases turns positive for first time in 14 days…
After being in the negative regime for 2 weeks, the 7D delta in daily cases has turned positive. A conclusion can’t be drawn based on one day’s data, but we will continue to monitor for a counter-trend over the coming days.
Source: Fundstrat and state health departments
US hospitalization still rolling over … and even US deaths seem to be rolling over…
Below we show the aggregate patients who are currently hospitalized due to COVID. It has fallen significantly from the wave 3 peak.
Source: Fundstrat and state health departments
Source: Fundstrat and state health departments
Source: Fundstrat and state health departments
Source: Fundstrat and state health departments
POINT 2: VACCINE: 32 states (+1 from Sunday) near ~60% infected + vaccinated
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Current Trends — Vaccinations:
Vaccinations ramping steadily
– avg 2.4 million this past week vs 2.2 million last week
– overall, 11.5% fully vaccinated, 21.2% 1-dose+ received
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Vaccination frontier update –> 32 states now near or above 60% combined penetration (vaccines + infections)
Below we sorted the states by the combined penetration (vaccinations + infections). As we commented in the past, the key figure is the combined value >60%, which is presumably near herd immunity. That is, the combined value of infections + vaccinations as % population > 60%.
– Currently, 32 states (see below) are basically all at this level
– So slowly, the US is getting to that threshold of presumable herd immunity
Source: CDC and Fundstrat
Collectively, these 32 states represent about 57% of the US population. Now while it is more than half of the states, it is also a similar share of the population. As the chart below highlights, the US is seeing steady forward progress and this figure continues to rise steadily.
Source: CDC and Fundstrat
There was a total of 2,000,328 doses administered, up from 1,701,125 doses 7D ago. The pace overall is steadily rising, as evidenced by the 7D moving average (see blue line).
Source: CDC and Fundstrat
~76% of the US has seen 1-dose penetration >20%
To better illustrate the actual footprint of the US vaccination effort, we have a time series showing the percent of the US with at least 5%/10%/15% of its residents fully vaccinated, displayed as the orange line on the chart. Currently, all US states have seen 5% of their residents fully vaccinated. However, when looking at the percentage of the US with at least 10% and 15% of its residents fully vaccinated, this figures are only 83.8% and 1.2%, respectively.
– While all US states have seen vaccine penetration >10%, 99% of them have seen 1 dose penetration >15% and 76.1% of them have seen 1 dose penetration > 20%.
– All of the US has at least 5% of its residents fully vaccinated, and now 83.8% of US has fully vaccinated >10%
– This figure is rising sharply now and could rise even more rapidly as the JNJ’s 1-dose vaccines roll out.
– the takeaway is the vaccination efforts are unlikely to be having much of an effect on case figures, currently.
Source: CDC and Fundstrat
This is the state by state data below, showing information for states with one dose and for those with two doses.
Source: CDC and Fundstrat
The ratio of vaccinations/ daily confirmed cases is generally trending higher (red line is 7D moving avg) and this is the most encouraging statistic.
– the 7D moving average is about ~45 for the past few days
– this means 45 vaccines dosed for every 1 confirmed case
This figure is rising nicely and likely surges in the coming weeks
Source: CD and Fundstrat
In total, about 70 million Americans have received at least 1 dose of a vaccine. This is a good pace and as we noted previously, implies 30% of the population by April.
Source: CDC and Fundstrat
Source: CDC and Fundstrat
POINT 3:Tracking “un-restricted” and “restriction-lifted” states
We are changing Point #3 to focus primarily on tracking the lifting of restrictions, as states begin to ease various mandates. Keep in mind, easing/lifting restrictions can take multiple forms:
– easing indoor capacity
– opening theaters, gyms, salons, saloons
– eliminating capacity restrictions
– eliminating mask mandates
So there is a spectrum of approaches. Our team is listing 3 tiers of states and these are shown below.
– states that eased in 2020: AK, OK, MO, FL, TN
– states that eased start 2021 to now: SD, ND, NB, ID, MT, IA, NC, MS, SC, AZ, TX, MD
– states that announced future easing dates: GA, NY, WI, AR, CA, AL, CT
GROUP 1: States that eased restrictions in 2020…
The daily case trends in these states is impressive and it is difficult to say that lifting restrictions has actually caused a new wave of cases. Rather, the case trends in these states look like other states.
GROUP 2: States that eased restrictions in 2021 to now…
Similar to the list of states above, the daily case trends in these states is impressive and it is difficult to say that lifting restrictions has actually caused a new wave of cases.
– we have previously written about how ND and SD, in particular, have seen an utter obliteration of COVID-19 cases in those states
– that seems to be a function of vaccine penetration + infection penetration, leading to something akin to “herd immunity”
GROUP 3: States that announced plans ease restrictions in 2021…
These states have upcoming dates to ease restrictions. The dates are indicated on each chart. The cases trends in these states have been mostly positive, with perhaps the exception of NY state:
– NY state case levels seem awfully stubborn at these high levels
– weather is improving in NY area, so if weather has any effect on virus transmission, it should slow cases
