VIX surge to 25 shows "fear" creeping in. AAII flips negative again, which we view as contrarian positive. We still see S&P 500 7,000 by year-end.

The S&P 500 is up +1.17% so far this week and down -0.9% for the month. Not bad. But the level of "apprehension" for equities has risen as the VIX now sits at 25, the highest levels since the tariff days of April to May 2025. So markets are worried.

The driver for this concern appears to be "cracks" in US credit quality emerging in the past week:- Early Oct: First Brands, an auto parts supplier, filed Ch. 11, with $6b missing and a hit to private credit- Early Oct: Tricolor brands, an a...

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