Fri, March 27, 2026 | 7:50AM ET

Fog of war continues but S&P 500 flat for the week, surprisingly

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Video: The fog of war continues. But we are seeing some curious developments. First is the shrinkage of oil premiums of the Middle East. Second, is the continued leadership of Energy, Crypto and US Technology.

Please click here to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:15).

Fog of war continues but S&P 500 flat for the week, surprisingly

It has been a rough week for stocks. But curiously, the S&P 500 is actually flat for the week so far. Yup, that seems hard to believe.

The S&P 500 was 6,505 last Friday (3/20) and closed Thursday (3/26) at 6,477. While there was a lot of movement during the week, we are tracking flat. If equities did not sell off today (Thu), equities would have been up for the week.
After the close Thursday, President Trump tweeted on Truthsocial.com that he is further authorizing a pause on attacks of Iran infrastructure until April 6th, 8pm (Monday). And the ostensible reason for this further 10-day delay is progress on talks.
As you know, many speculate this delay relates to US troop movements, and US troops are likely in position for a ground invasion on April 5.
This is all part of the “fog of war” as the US cannot fully be transparent on its strategy. And the Iran regime is fractured and also there remains a high level of misdirection and “fake news.”
But there are two things that caught our eye this week. We are 4 weeks into the war, so there has been enough time for these to have some meaning:
– first, the premium for Dubai/Oman oil has collapsed
– second, Energy, Crypto and US tech continue to lead.
Regarding oil prices, US consumers generally care about WTI and Europe Brent. And there are Middle East prices. Prior to the war, these prices were relatively close:
– but by mid-March, the premium surged
– mid-March: Dubai $176 vs WTI $94
– now: Dubai $119 vs WTI $94
So, the spread is now down to $25 a barrel. That is a lot, but far less than the $82 premium two weeks ago. And if this is signal, this implies less future impact on WTI prices in the weeks ahead. Assuming the WTI lags Dubai prices.
As to why this is happening, I am not an oil expert, but this is signal.
And as for Technology and crypto outperforming, we have written about this many times. This is a good sign for US growth stocks. And we continue to feel this way.
This week is a light week in terms of Macro data:
– 3/23 Mon 8:30 AM ET: Feb Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index -0.11 vs 0.16e
– 3/24 Tue: March Macro Update & Top Ideas Webinar
– 3/24 Tue 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Nonfarm Productivity QoQ 1.8% vs 1.8%e
– 3/24 Tue 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Unit Labor Costs 4.4% vs 3.6%e
– 3/24 Tue 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.4 vs 51.5e
– 3/24 Tue 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Services PMI 51.1 vs 52.0e
– 3/24 Tue 10:00 AM ET: Mar Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey 0 vs -8.0e
– 3/26 Thu 11:00 AM ET: Mar Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey 11 vs 2.5e
– 3/27 Fri 10:00 AM ET: Mar F U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp
Next week we have important employment numbers, with the Feb JOLTS report on Tuesday, and the BLS Mar Jobs Report on Good Friday:
– 3/30 Mon 10:30 AM ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
– 3/31 Tue 9:00 AM ET: Jan S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA
– 3/31 Tue 10:00 AM ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer Confidence 89e
– 3/31 Tue 10:00 AM ET: Feb JOLTS Job Openings
– 4/1 Wed 8:30 AM ET: Feb Retail Sales
– 4/1 Wed 9:45 AM ET: Mar F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
– 4/1 Wed 10:00 AM ET: Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI 52.1e
– 4/2 Thu 8:30 AM ET: Feb Trade Balance -55be
– 4/3 Friday: Good Friday (Market Closed)
– 4/3 Fri 8:30 AM ET: Mar Non-farm Payrolls 51ke
– 4/3 Fri 9:45 AM ET: Mar F S&P Global Services PMI

BOTTOM LINE: AI rotation to “bullet makers” is not end of MAG7

While March is coming to a close, we still have a belief March could be an up month. Markets are climbing a wall of worry. We continue to view 2026 as an overall tougher year for markets, with a 3 phase market (rally, then large decline, then YE strong). And our positioning remains:

Energy/Basic Materials -> top pick
MAG7 & Bitcoin & Ethereum
Industrials -> “bullet makers”
Financials: Large-cap and regional banks
Small-caps

Part I: 44 Large-cap Core Ideas: Updated list is below

Large-Cap Core Stock Ideas are large-cap stocks that appear in multiple of our investment strategies.

Consider these the stocks our top stock picks and thus, the higher quality ideas.

The Current Large-cap Core List as of 3/23/2026 is as follows:

Communication Services: GOOGL, META, NFLX, SATS
Consumer Discretionary: AMZN, TJX, TSLA
Consumer Staples: COST, MNST, WMT
Energy: CVX, OKE, TPL
Financials: AXP, BK, GS, HOOD, JPM, PNC
Health Care: AMGN, MRK
Industrials: CAT, DE, ETN, GE, GEV, NOC, PWR, TT, UNP
Information Technology: AAPL, AMD, ANET, AVGO, CDNS, KLAC, MSFT, MSTR, NVDA, PLTR
Materials: APD, PKG, PPG
Utilities: VST

Part II: 62 SMID Core Ideas: Updated list is below

SMID Core Ideas are small and mid-cap stocks that appear in multiple of our investment strategies.

We believe SMID Core List could benefit from the multiple themes and secular tailwinds.

The Current SMID Core List as of 3/23/2026 is as follows:

Communication Services: RDDT, SATS, TIGO
Consumer Discretionary: DPZ, H, IBP, SGI, SN
Consumer Staples: BG, ELF
Energy: CCJ, DINO, DTM, UUUU, WFRD
Financials: ALLY, EWBC, GLXY, SOFI, WAL
Health Care: EXEL, HALO, UHS, UTHR
Industrials: ARRY, AVAV, AWI, BE, BWXT, CARR, CRS, CW, DCI, DY, ENS, FIX, HII, IESC, ITT, KTOS, MLI, NXT, QXO, RKLB, STRL, VMI, WTS
Information Technology: FN, IONQ, LSCC, LITE, MDB, NBIS, ON, PATH, PSTG, RIOT, SANM
Materials: ALB, MP, RGLD
Utilities: TLN

Key Incoming Data March:

~~3/2 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI~~ Tame
~~3/2 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Manufacturing PMI~~ Tame
~~3/4 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Services PMI~~ Tame
~~3/4 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Services PMI~~ Hot
~~3/4 2:00 PM ET: Fed Releases Beige Book~~ Tame
~~3/5 8:30 AM ET: 4Q P Unit Labor Costs~~ Tame
~~3/5 8:30 AM ET: 4Q P Nonfarm Productivity QoQ~~ Tame
~~3/6 8:30 AM ET: Feb Non-farm Payrolls~~ Mixed
~~3/6 8:30 AM ET: Jan Retail Sales~~ Tame
~~3/9 11:00 AM ET: Feb NYFed 1yr Inf Exp~~ Tame
~~3/10 6:00 AM ET: Feb Small Business Optimism Survey~~ Tame
~~3/10 10:00 AM ET: Feb Existing Home Sales~~ Tame
~~3/11 8:30 AM ET: Feb Core CPI MoM~~ Tame
~~3/12 8:30 AM ET: Jan Trade Balance~~ Tame
~~3/13 8:30 AM ET: 4Q S GDP QoQ~~ Mixed
~~3/13 8:30 AM ET: Jan P Durable Goods Orders MoM~~ Tame
~~3/13 8:30 AM ET: Jan Core PCE MoM~~ Tame
~~3/13 10:00 AM ET: Jan JOLTS Job Openings~~ Tame
~~3/13 10:00 AM ET: Mar P U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp~~ Tame
~~3/16 8:30 AM ET: Mar Empire Manufacturing Survey~~ Tame
~~3/16 10:00 AM ET: Mar NAHB Housing Market Index~~ Tame
~~3/18 8:30 AM ET: Feb Core PPI MoM~~ Mixed
~~3/18 10:00 AM ET: Jan F Durable Goods Orders MoM~~ Tame
~~3/18 2:00 PM ET: Mar FOMC Decision~~ Mixed
~~3/18 4:00 PM ET: Jan Net TIC Flows~~ Tame
~~3/19 8:30 AM ET: Mar Philly Fed Business Outlook~~ Tame
~~3/19 10:00 AM ET: Jan New Home Sales~~ Tame
~~3/23 8:30 AM ET: Feb Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index~~ Tame
~~3/24 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Unit Labor Costs~~ Tame
~~3/24 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Nonfarm Productivity QoQ~~ Tame
~~3/24 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Services PMI~~ Tame
~~3/24 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI~~ Tame
~~3/24 10:00 AM ET: Mar Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey~~ Tame
~~3/26 11:00 AM ET: Mar Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey~~ Tame
3/27 10:00 AM ET: Mar F U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp
3/30 10:30 AM ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
3/31 9:00 AM ET: Jan S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA
3/31 10:00 AM ET: Feb JOLTS Job Openings
3/31 10:00 AM ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer Confidence

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2026:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2025:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023:

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