Fed Chair Warsh chose violence by raising +25bp. Recovery in stocks Thursday affirms this max hawkish stance is a positive setup into month-end.

In this stock market outlook this week report dated September 18, 2026, Tom Lee analyzes the market reaction to the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision under Chair Kevin Warsh and the subsequent moves in major U.S. equity indices. He reviews the sharp post-meeting equity pullback, the following day’s recovery, and concurrent shifts in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, West Texas Intermediate crude oil, and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). The report also discusses commentary from former Federal Reserve officials, the implications of the Fed’s “long and variable lags” framework, and how upcoming inflation data and revisions to core PCE methodology could intersect with the September rate move.

Lee then looks ahead to a dense calendar of Fed speeches and economic releases through late September, including regional Fed manufacturing surveys, S&P Global PMIs, durable goods orders, housing data, and University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations. The report also highlights the relative performance of crypto assets, with particular attention to Ethereum (ETH) in 3Q26, and presents updated Fundstrat Large-Cap Core and SMID Core stock idea lists across sectors such as Information Technology, Financials, Industrials, Energy, and more. Full analysis, detailed charts, and the author’s market view are contained in the complete written report.

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