The Cut, The Dots, and the Chair: Why 2026 Looks Different

In this Fed meeting recap, Alexa Sinsheimer and Max Motz analyze the December 2025 FOMC decision, the latest 25 bp policy rate cut, and what the updated Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot suggest about uncertainty around the 2026 rate path. The report walks through how Fed officials are split between labor-market risks and still-elevated inflation, how the distribution of dots for year-end 2026 has changed since September, and what that implies about polarization inside the committee. It also examines the impact of the recent U.S. government shutdown on data visibility, including missed October 2025 releases for key indicators like nonfarm payrolls, CPI, and PPI, and how this data gap shaped Chair Jerome Powell’s messaging at the press conference.

The authors then map out the evolving 2026 FOMC voting lineup, including which regional Fed presidents rotate on, which current dissenters will not vote in 2026, and how Governor terms, Powell’s Chair term ending in May, and potential reappointments or resignations could affect Board composition. They detail scenarios for how President Trump’s stated preferences for the next Fed Chair, the status of Governor Adriana Kugler Miran’s seat, and Raphael Bostic’s planned retirement may influence the ideological backdrop for future decisions. The report also reviews market reaction across the S&P 500 and discusses the announced end of quantitative tightening, with full charts and detailed policy-path analysis available to subscribers.

In this Fed meeting recap, Alexa Sinsheimer and Max Motz analyze the December 2025 FOMC decision, the latest 25 bp policy rate cut, and what the updated Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot suggest about uncertainty around the 2026 rate path. The report walks through how Fed officials are split between labor-market risks and still-elevated inflation, how the distribution of dots for year-end 2026 has changed since September, and what that implies about polarization inside the committee. It also examines the impact of the recent U.S. government shutdown on data visibility, including missed October 2025 releases for key indicators like nonfarm payrolls, CPI, and PPI, and how this data gap shaped Chair Jerome Powell’s messaging at the press conference.

The authors then map out the evolving 2026 FOMC voting lineup, including which regional Fed presidents rotate on, which current dissenters will not vote in 2026, and how Governor terms, Powell’s Chair term ending in May, and potential reappointments or resignations could affect Board composition. They detail scenarios for how President Trump’s stated preferences for the next Fed Chair, the status of Governor Adriana Kugler Miran’s seat, and Raphael Bostic’s planned retirement may influence the ideological backdrop for future decisions. The report also reviews market reaction across the S&P 500 and discusses the announced end of quantitative tightening, with full charts and detailed policy-path analysis available to subscribers.

checkout-thomas-lee image
checkout-logo image

Become a Member To Access Fundstrat Research

Fundstrat Direct gives individual investors access to Tom Lee's research, previously only available to banks and hedge funds.

Annual plans

Fundstrat AI is included with every annual plan.
Macro + Fundstrat AI
Evidence-based market intelligence from our team of renowned analysts — with Fundstrat AI included.
Save 12%
$289 $254/mo · $3,052 billed annually
You save $416/yr ($35/mo)
Start 30-Day Free Trial
  • ✓

    Fundstrat AI included

  • ✓ Near-daily macro strategy from Tom Lee & team
  • ✓ Real-time macro market alerts
  • ✓ Curated stock lists and sector allocation tools
  • ✓ Live webinars (macro)
  • ✓ Fundstrat AI Desk — ask the markets anything
  • ✓ AI charts & stock scoring benchmarked against Mark Newton's model
Crypto + Fundstrat AI
Clear-cut insights into the cryptocurrency market, grounded in Fundstrat's macro framework — with Fundstrat AI included.
Save 12%
$139 $122/mo · $1,468 billed annually
You save $200/yr ($17/mo)
Start 30-Day Free Trial
  • ✓

    Fundstrat AI included

  • ✓ Near-daily crypto strategy from Fundstrat team
  • ✓ Real-time crypto market alerts
  • ✓ Curated crypto picks and crypto equities lists
  • ✓ Live webinars (crypto)
  • ✓ Fundstrat AI Desk — ask the markets anything
  • ✓ AI charts, chartbooks & automated client communications

Monthly plans

Fundstrat AI Add Fundstrat AI to a monthly plan On
Macro
Evidence-based market intelligence from our team of renowned analysts.
$249/mo
Start 30-Day Free Trial
  • ✓ Near-daily macro strategy from Tom Lee & team
  • ✓ Real-time macro market alerts
  • ✓ Curated stock lists and sector allocation tools
  • ✓ Live webinars (macro)
Macro + Fundstrat AI
Everything in Macro, plus Fundstrat AI — instant insights on your portfolios and stocks, charts on command, and stock scoring benchmarked against Mark Newton's model.
$289/mo
Start 30-Day Free Trial
  • ✓ Everything in Macro
  • ✓ AI insights on your portfolios, stocks & investment activity
  • ✓ Stock scoring benchmarked against Mark Newton's model
  • ✓ Fundstrat AI Desk — ask the markets anything
  • ✓ AI charts, chartbooks & automated client communications
Crypto
Clear-cut insights into the cryptocurrency market, grounded in Fundstrat's macro framework.
$119/mo
Start 30-Day Free Trial
  • ✓ Near-daily crypto strategy from Fundstrat team
  • ✓ Real-time crypto market alerts
  • ✓ Curated crypto picks and crypto equities lists
  • ✓ Live webinars (crypto)
Crypto + Fundstrat AI
Everything in Crypto, plus Fundstrat AI — instant insights on your portfolios and holdings, charts on command, and digital-asset scoring benchmarked against our models.
$139/mo
Start 30-Day Free Trial
  • ✓ Everything in Crypto
  • ✓ AI insights on your portfolios, holdings & investment activity
  • ✓ Fundstrat AI Desk — ask the markets anything
  • ✓ AI charts, chartbooks & automated client communications

Why Join Fundstrat Direct?

Fundstrat Direct helps you invest confidently with the same research banks and hedge funds use to navigate the market.

Daily Strategy Icon

Daily Strategy from Tom Lee & Team

Stay ahead of consensus with daily updates on key developments & catalysts and opportunities ahead.

Real-Time Market Alerts Icon

Real-Time Market Alerts

Analysis on market-moving events and actionable opportunities delivered instantly from us to you.

Curated Stock Lists Icon

Curated Stock Lists

Choose the portfolio that best suits your investment style, preferred asset class, and time horizon.

Monthly Market Update & Top Ideas Webinar Icon

Monthly Market Update & Top Ideas Webinar

Attend engaging webinars with Tom & team featuring our top ideas and near-term market outlook.

Daily Technical Strategy Icon

Daily Technical Strategy

Receive tactical opportunities, actionable signals, and fundamental analysis from our proven research team.

Live Analysis on Your Holdings Icon

Live Analysis on Your Holdings

A monthly webinar featuring live analysis on member-submitted stocks and questions.

Events

Trending tickers in our research