Alexa Sinsheimer ^AC

The Warsh of Wall Street

The rate decision was the non-event everyone expected. The Fed held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75%. The statement and the dots got the immediate market reaction, but the more consequential development was what Warsh announced alongside them: five task forces to overhaul core Fed functions, with a…

End of an Era – Powell’s Parting

The Federal Reserve kept rates on hold at 3.5%–3.75% Wednesday for the third straight meeting, delivering the non-decision that markets had fully priced in. What they hadn’t priced in: Powell isn’t going anywhere. The outgoing chair confirmed he will remain on the Board of Governors after his term expires on…

The Only Certainty Is Uncertainty

The March meeting did not offer much new in the “dots”, but Chair Powell’s language made one shift clearer: the Fed is once again balancing two mandates that are no longer moving comfortably together. “We are balancing these two goals in a situation where the risks to the labor market…

The Cut, The Dots, and the Chair: Why 2026 Looks Different

The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points today, the third cut of the year and an outcome that carried over a 90 percent implied probability (per Fed Funds Futures) this morning. With the move widely expected, the real debate centered on whether investors would view…

A Not-So-Foregone Conclusion: The Fed Cuts, but December in Limbo

The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday afternoon, bringing the target range to 3.75 to 4.00 percent. The move was widely expected, with fed funds futures pricing in roughly 98% odds of a 25 basis point cut ahead of today’s…

The Summer I Cut Rates

“When our goals are in tension like this, our framework calls for us to balance both sides of our dual mandate.” – Jay Powell The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, citing rising risks to the labor market as the…

The Great Rate Debate

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady today, maintaining the target range at 4.25%–4.50%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell characterized current policy as “modestly restrictive,” citing a labor market that remains “solid” with “historically low unemployment.” With investors widely expecting no change to the target rate this month, perhaps…

Dual Mandate Duel

As expected, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark policy rate at 4.25%–4.50%. In the first Summary of Economic Projections since the April tariff announcement, Fed officials forecast higher inflation and unemployment alongside lower growth. The updated projections highlight growing tension within the Fed’s dual mandate. Although recent inflation data was…

Stocks Turn Higher Shortly After the Open

Powell Leans Dovish with “Transitory” Base Case for Tariffs

The Federal Reserve announced no change to its benchmark rate Wednesday, emphasizing a cautious approach in the face of elevated economic uncertainty. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced the committee’s stance that patience remains the best course of action as they assess the “net effects” of new policy. The latest Summary…