The Only Certainty Is Uncertainty

The March meeting did not offer much new in the “dots”, but Chair Powell’s language made one shift clearer: the Fed is once again balancing two mandates that are no longer moving comfortably together. “We are balancing these two goals in a situation where the risks to the labor market are to the downside, which would call for lower rates, and the risks to inflation are to the upside, which would call for higher rates, or not cutting anyway.” That is a sharper framing than January, whe...

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