Maximilian Motz ^AC

To Hike or Not to Hike

The Federal Reserve kept rates on hold at 3.5%–3.75% Wednesday for the fifth straight meeting. Unlike previous decisions however, a hold was far from guaranteed, as 3 of the more Hawkish members of the FOMC (Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan) dissented in favor of a 25 basis point increase. Although a…

The Warsh of Wall Street

The rate decision was the non-event everyone expected. The Fed held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75%. The statement and the dots got the immediate market reaction, but the more consequential development was what Warsh announced alongside them: five task forces to overhaul core Fed functions, with a…

SpaceX is launching a historic IPO — but its biggest risk has nothing to do with rockets

End of an Era – Powell’s Parting

The Federal Reserve kept rates on hold at 3.5%–3.75% Wednesday for the third straight meeting, delivering the non-decision that markets had fully priced in. What they hadn’t priced in: Powell isn’t going anywhere. The outgoing chair confirmed he will remain on the Board of Governors after his term expires on…

The Only Certainty Is Uncertainty

The March meeting did not offer much new in the “dots”, but Chair Powell’s language made one shift clearer: the Fed is once again balancing two mandates that are no longer moving comfortably together. “We are balancing these two goals in a situation where the risks to the labor market…

Defense stocks are the market’s newest safe havens — and this ETF is a pure play

FOMC Holds Line, So Do Markets

As expected, the Federal Reserve on Jan. 28, 2026 maintained its benchmark policy rate at 3.50-3.75%. The decision was not unanimous, as two of the most dovish Fed chairs, Waller and Miran, dissented in favor of a 25bp cut. Yet it should be noted that Miran had previously called for…

2025 Markets Wrapped

2025 was another fantastic year for markets, continuing a bull-run as the 3rd Consecutive year of double-digit gains in the S&P 500. Yet despite the stellar gains, 2025 was a year marked by extremes: extremely high uncertainty, extremely bearish sentiment, an extremely steep decline followed by an equally steep recovery,…

The Cut, The Dots, and the Chair: Why 2026 Looks Different

The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points today, the third cut of the year and an outcome that carried over a 90 percent implied probability (per Fed Funds Futures) this morning. With the move widely expected, the real debate centered on whether investors would view…

A Not-So-Foregone Conclusion: The Fed Cuts, but December in Limbo

The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday afternoon, bringing the target range to 3.75 to 4.00 percent. The move was widely expected, with fed funds futures pricing in roughly 98% odds of a 25 basis point cut ahead of today’s…