It’s been a while since blockbuster initial public offerings dominated the market, but this year, there’s supposed to be no shortage of them.
Elon Musk’s SpaceX, Sam Altman’s OpenAI, and Dario Amodei’s Anthropic are all expected to go public this year at eye-popping valuations. Estimates suggest that SpaceX could be valued at more than $1.75 trillion, and if those targets are hit, it would mark the largest global IPO on record. Going by the current timeline, shares could list in June. Meanwhile, OpenAI is expected to be valued close to $1 trillion, and Anthropic at around $380 billion.
Naturally, everyone wants a piece of the pie.
The timing couldn’t be more perfect: The broader stock market has been in turmoil for most of the year, dragged down by the conflict in the Middle East sending oil prices surging. Though the stock market has made a swift recovery back to records, questions remain about the longevity of the rally. The S&P 500 is now up 4.7% for the year, while the Nasdaq composite has added 6.9%. Highly anticipated IPOs can help distract investors from the continued chaos in energy prices and hopefully everywhere else in between, as well.
Of course, this also means that expectations are high, and even a little stumble by the hot new names could leave the stock market vulnerable to steep losses.
If recent IPOs are any guide, investors should carefully weigh the risks associated with investing in IPOs.
Plenty of companies went public last year—including Chime, Circle, eToro, Figma, and Bullish—with shares initially surging to the moon but then fading away into irrelevance. All five mentioned are down since they went public. CoreWeave is among the rarities. It has more than doubled since its IPO last year, even though shares are down 40% from their highs.
The Renaissance IPO ETF, which provides exposure to new IPOs and cycles out constituents older than three years, has added 30% over the past year, on par with the S&P 500’s gain of 31%.
Though it’s common to see IPOs rise on the first day of trading, it’s not a given. About 25% of IPOs decline in value right out of the gate, according to a CNBC story citing Jay Ritter, director of the IPO initiative at the University of Florida.
Another great point highlighted by Ritter is: What are the chances that you are able to get your order in for the offering price? Most retail investors, in fact, don’t have access to placing the order at offering price, with the right typically reserved for institutional investors. Ritter estimates that for hot IPOs, around 95% of the shares go to institutional investors. And since private investors have likely already captured the biggest chunk of the upside, retail investors should manage their expectations for explosive growth.
Though SpaceX has said it would reserve 30% of its shares for retail, there’s no exact number available yet for OpenAI and Anthropic. OpenAI Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar told CNBC that it will “for sure” keep shares for retail investors.
Still, the demand is expected to be so high for these hot IPOs that only the lucky few will get in.
For those more focused on the long term, they needn’t worry too much about getting in on the IPO because they will own it indirectly soon enough if they own shares of funds tracking the Nasdaq 100 index. Under a new “fast entry” rule, companies are eligible to join the index just 15 trading days after their IPO, slashing the previous three-month waiting period. To accommodate these quick additions, the index will also be allowed to temporarily expand beyond its usual 100-constituent limit.
With that being said, if you can stomach the risk, here’s how you can get exposure before the IPOs.
Funds
Shares of Fundrise Innovation fund VCX -10.05% have exposure to hot private companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. Since the fund went public on March 19, its shares have jumped 173%, compared to an 8.8% gain for the S&P 500 over the same duration. The fund invests across thematic sectors including artificial intelligence and machine learning, data infrastructure, vertical and horizontal software, and other categories.
As a closed-end fund, it has a fixed number of shares that can be bought and sold. Typically, funds like that are supposed to trade at a discount to NAV to account for the management fees and illiquidity of the underlying assets, but Fundrise Innovation fund shares are trading over their NAV of $14.89, based on a filing from September 2025, a reflection of the hot demand.
It also comes with a hefty management fee of 1.85%.
According to the fund’s prospectus, shares purchased prior to Feb. 20 are subject to a six-month lockup period, so if shares of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic flop after IPO, you won’t be able to get your money out so easily.
There’s also another closed-end fund, Destiny Tech100 fund DXYZ 3.27% , that also holds shares of SpaceX and OpenAI. On its website, it says that it “intends to invest in a portfolio of 100 of the top venture-backed private technology companies, providing everyday investors access to these private market leaders for the first time.” It comes with an even higher management fee of 2.5%.
Since the fund started trading publicly in March 2024, shares have fluctuated wildly, up 257%, compared to a 37% gain for the S&P 500 over the same duration. Like the Fundrise Innovation fund, shares of the Destiny Tech100 fund trade above its NAV of $19.97.
It was also announced this week that Robinhood’s proprietary investment vehicle, Robinhood Ventures Fund I RVI -6.06% , for retail investors has acquired a small stake in OpenAI. Its shares are up 39% since it went public on March 6 and is also a closed-end fund with a NAV of $24.70. The S&P 500, meanwhile, has added 5.9% over that same duration.
Its expense ratio is supposed to be 3.13%, but due to an agreement with its “Adviser,” the net expense ratio will be 2.13% until Aug. 27.
“OpenAI is one of the frontier artificial intelligence companies, and we are incredibly proud to add them to the Fund,” said Sarah Pinto, president of Robinhood Ventures Fund I, in a statement to CNBC.
Among the other private companies it owns are Databricks, Revolut, and Oura.
For those looking to avoid so much exposure to private companies in a fund, a better potential fit might be Baron Opportunity BIOPX, a mutual fund which holds shares of large, publicly traded companies like Nvidia and Broadcom and others but also private companies like SpaceX, which is about 15.4% of its portfolio. Mutual funds are allowed to hold up to 15% of the portfolio in so-called non-liquid assets, which can include private equity and private real estate holdings. Baron’s fund can hold more than what’s allowed because it classifies SpaceX as “less liquid” rather than “illiquid.”
Its expense ratio is 1.31% and AUM is $1.62 billion. Shares are up 29% in the past year, compared to a 31% gain for the S&P 500.
Companies
You can also gain exposure to companies that have exposure to these hot, private names.
Alphabet GOOG -1.16% is an investor in both SpaceX and Anthropic. At the end of 2025, Google owned a 6.11% stake in SpaceX. As an early investor, going back to 2015, Google could reap a 12-figure windfall, according to Bloomberg reporting. And just Friday, Google committed to invest as much as $40 billion into Anthropic. Of this, $10 billion will be invested in cash now at a $350 billion valuation, and the rest will come after Anthropic meets certain milestones.
Alphabet shares are up over 110% in the last year, compared to a 31% gain for the S&P 500.
Amazon AMZN -1.50% also agreed last week to invest as much as $25 billion in Anthropic. It had already previously invested $8 billion. For the recent deal, Amazon will invest $5 billion in the beginning, and then add the rest as the milestones are met. In February, it also gained exposure to OpenAI, investing $50 billion.
Amazon shares are up 42% in the past year.
EchoStar SATS 1.59% is another way to indirectly invest in SpaceX. The satellite-communications company has agreed to sell $20 billion worth of spectrum to SpaceX. The deal is supposed to close by November 2027, and in it, SpaceX will pay EchoStar up to $11 billion worth of its class A common stock.
Regarding the skyhigh valuation number commanded by SpaceX right now, EchoStar CEO Charles Ergen said “I don’t think any amount of valuation is probably crazy there.”
EchoStar shares are up 422% in the last year.
Conclusion
While SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic may be garnering a lot of hype right now, the fact is that the IPO game remains difficult to win. If you have a long-term view, you don’t necessarily need to buy at the IPO to get exposure because your index fund will most likely soon hold shares of these hot companies. These companies are building the infrastructure of the future; whether you buy them directly or through a fund or an index, the most important takeaway is to understand the world they are about to build and the trades that emerge from it.
However, as always, Signal From Noise should not be used as a source of investment recommendations but rather ideas for further investigation. We encourage you to explore our full Signal From Noise library, which includes deep dives on the business of farming and the recent gold rush, quantum computing, and the race to onshore chip fabrication. You can also find our take on space-exploration investments, a recent update on AI focusing on sovereign AI and AI agents, and the rising wealth of women.
