After hours, reports US-Iran discuss ceasefire trigger oil decline. But there is the "fog of war"

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Video: We are caught in the fog of war, but it does seem like the US and Iran are discussing a potential 30-day ceasefire.  And if this comes to pass, this would be a positive development for markets.  Oil futures declined after hours.

Please click here to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:54).

Today, after the close, Israel Channel 12 reported that a one-month ceasefire is being prepared between US-Iran. If correct, this is a major positive development. But investors are weary and wary about war developments, and we are all caught in the “fog of war” at the moment.

• Markets certainly reacted to these headlines, which came after the close on Tuesday (past 4pm ET). And we see reactions in both futures and in prediction markets.
• In futures, WTI futures fell from $92 to $86, shortly after the headlines crossed, which is a sizable drop. And equity futures showed 0.75% gains as well.
• Prediction markets (polymarket.com) also reacted. And two notable developments were:
  – odds of ceasefire by April jumped to 53% (vs 48% yesterday) and highest since early March
  – odds of >$100 crude oil by June fell to 70%, the lowest since early March
• The proposed US conditions are reportedly as follows:
  The 15 Clauses of the Agreement with Iran (Via AI Hadath)
  1. Automatically cancel the threat of reimposition of sanctions.
  2. Dismantling Iran’s Existing Nuclear Capabilities
  3. Agreement with Iran… Iran vows to “never seek” nuclear weapons
  4. Preventing the enrichment of any nuclear material on Iranian territory
  5. Delivery of enriched uranium to IAEA
  6. Decommissioning and destroying the sites of Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow
  7. Grant the IAEA full access to all information
  8. Iran abandons ‘proxies’ approach
  9. Stopping funding and arming militias in the region
  10. Keeping the Strait of Hormuz open without any closure
  11. Postponement of decision on ballistic missile program
  12. Ballistic missiles are only used for defense
  13. Lifting all sanctions on Iran
  14. Support for the development of a civilian nuclear program in Bushehr
  15. Automatically cancel the threat of reimposition of sanctions via AI Arabiva
  (Source is Israel’s Channel 12 and also via AI Hadath)
• We are in the fog of war, so I am not entirely sure what is credible. But as we highlight below, the Iran Embassy in South Africa tweeted “The calls for peace have begun to ring. The terms are clear.” (link –> here).
• I am sure we will hear conflicting factions and conflicting reports. But given the breakdown in communications and infrastructure in Iran, this is not surprising.
• But if this is indeed true, this is a positive development and would likely be a turning point for equities. We will see.
• This week is a light week in terms of Macro data:
  – 3/23 Mon 8:30 AM ET: Feb Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index -0.11 vs 0.16e
  – 3/24 Tue: March Macro Update & Top Ideas Webinar
  – 3/24 Tue 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Nonfarm Productivity QoQ 1.8% vs 1.8%e
  – 3/24 Tue 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Unit Labor Costs 4.4% vs 3.6%e
  – 3/24 Tue 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.4 vs 51.5e
  – 3/24 Tue 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Services PMI 51.1 vs 52.0e
  – 3/24 Tue 10:00 AM ET: Mar Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey 0 vs -8.0e
  – 3/26 Thu 11:00 AM ET: Mar Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey 2.5e
  – 3/27 Fri 10:00 AM ET: Mar F U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp

BOTTOM LINE: AI rotation to “bullet makers” is not end of MAG7

While March is coming to a close, we still have a belief March could be an up month. Markets are climbing a wall of worry. We continue to view 2026 as an overall tougher year for markets, with a 3 phase market (rally, then large decline, then YE strong). And our positioning remains:

• Energy/Basic Materials -> top pick
• MAG7 & Bitcoin & Ethereum
• Industrials -> “bullet makers”
• Financials: Large-cap and regional banks
• Small-caps

Part I: 44 Large-cap Core Ideas: Updated list is below

Large-Cap Core Stock Ideas are large-cap stocks that appear in multiple of our investment strategies.

• Consider these the stocks our top stock picks and thus, the higher quality ideas.

The Current Large-cap Core List as of 3/23/2026 is as follows:

Communication Services: GOOGL -1.21% , META -1.88% , NFLX -0.21% , SATS -0.63%
Consumer Discretionary: AMZN -0.94% , TJX 0.86% , TSLA -1.29%
Consumer Staples: COST -0.11% , MNST -0.38% , WMT -0.11%
Energy: CVX 0.52% , OKE 0.30% , TPL 0.40%
Financials: AXP -0.91% , BK 0.08% , GS -1.29% , HOOD -1.30% , JPM -0.79% , PNC -0.19%
Health Care: AMGN -1.67% , MRK -0.08%
Industrials: CAT -1.60% , DE -1.38% , ETN -1.33% , GE -0.94% , GEV -1.26% , NOC 0.11% , PWR -1.07% , TT 0.91% , UNP 0.69%
Information Technology: AAPL -0.25% , AMD -1.73% , ANET -1.95% , AVGO -1.30% , CDNS -0.85% , KLAC -2.26% , MSFT -0.46% , MSTR -1.55% , NVDA -1.21% , PLTR 0.15%
Materials: APD -0.21% , PKG -0.07% , PPG -3.13%
Utilities: VST -1.33%

Part II: 62 SMID Core Ideas: Updated list is below

SMID Core Ideas are small and mid-cap stocks that appear in multiple of our investment strategies.

• We believe SMID Core List could benefit from the multiple themes and secular tailwinds.

The Current SMID Core List as of 3/23/2026 is as follows:

Communication Services: RDDT -2.03% , SATS -0.63% , TIGO -1.88%
Consumer Discretionary: DPZ 0.16% , H -0.96% , IBP -0.73% , SGI 1.70% , SN -1.57%
Consumer Staples: BG 1.06% , ELF -1.15%
Energy: CCJ -2.53% , DINO -0.88% , DTM -0.26% , UUUU -2.40% , WFRD -0.86%
Financials: ALLY -1.68% , EWBC 0.93% , GLXY -0.99% , SOFI -1.69% , WAL 1.51%
Health Care: EXEL -0.67% , HALO 1.93% , UHS 0.43% , UTHR 1.84%
Industrials: ARRY -2.65% , AVAV -1.52% , AWI 0.95% , BE -2.89% , BWXT -1.18% , CARR -3.17% , CRS -1.63% , CW 0.21% , DCI 0.95% , DY -3.45% , ENS 0.16% , FIX -1.47% , HII -0.89% , IESC -1.85% , ITT -1.81% , KTOS -1.25% , MLI 0.81% , NXT -2.52% , QXO -1.49% , RKLB -1.93% , STRL -2.63% , VMI 0.59% , WTS -0.22%
Information Technology: FN -3.27% , IONQ -1.50% , LSCC -0.71% , LITE -2.37% , MDB -1.23% , NBIS -1.68% , ON -1.85% , PATH -1.10% , PSTG -2.28% , RIOT -2.37% , SANM -0.40%
Materials: ALB -2.70% , MP -2.49% , RGLD -3.21%
Utilities: TLN -1.44%

Key Incoming Data March:

• 3/2 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 3/2 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 3/4 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
• 3/4 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Services PMI Hot
• 3/4 2:00 PM ET: Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
• 3/5 8:30 AM ET: 4Q P Unit Labor Costs Tame
• 3/5 8:30 AM ET: 4Q P Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Tame
• 3/6 8:30 AM ET: Feb Non-farm Payrolls Mixed
• 3/6 8:30 AM ET: Jan Retail Sales Tame
• 3/9 11:00 AM ET: Feb NYFed 1yr Inf Exp Tame
• 3/10 6:00 AM ET: Feb Small Business Optimism Survey Tame
• 3/10 10:00 AM ET: Feb Existing Home Sales Tame
• 3/11 8:30 AM ET: Feb Core CPI MoM Tame
• 3/12 8:30 AM ET: Jan Trade Balance Tame
• 3/13 8:30 AM ET: 4Q S GDP QoQ Mixed
• 3/13 8:30 AM ET: Jan P Durable Goods Orders MoM Tame
• 3/13 8:30 AM ET: Jan Core PCE MoM Tame
• 3/13 10:00 AM ET: Jan JOLTS Job Openings Tame
• 3/13 10:00 AM ET: Mar P U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp Tame
• 3/16 8:30 AM ET: Mar Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
• 3/16 10:00 AM ET: Mar NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 3/18 8:30 AM ET: Feb Core PPI MoM Mixed
• 3/18 10:00 AM ET: Jan F Durable Goods Orders MoM Tame
• 3/18 2:00 PM ET: Mar FOMC Decision Mixed
• 3/18 4:00 PM ET: Jan Net TIC Flows Tame
• 3/19 8:30 AM ET: Mar Philly Fed Business Outlook Tame
• 3/19 10:00 AM ET: Jan New Home Sales Tame
• 3/23 8:30 AM ET: Feb Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Tame
• 3/24 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Unit Labor Costs Tame
• 3/24 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Tame
• 3/24 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Services PMI Tame
• 3/24 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 3/24 10:00 AM ET: Mar Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Tame
• 3/26 11:00 AM ET: Mar Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
• 3/27 10:00 AM ET: Mar F U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp
• 3/30 10:30 AM ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
• 3/31 9:00 AM ET: Jan S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA
• 3/31 10:00 AM ET: Feb JOLTS Job Openings
• 3/31 10:00 AM ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer Confidence

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2026:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2025:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023: